The United States and China are unlikely to see a rapid hit to their credit ratings from a trade war, S&P Global's top sovereign analyst has said, with damage more likely concentrated on poorer countries and those already on downgrade warnings.

The view that the Chinese leadership was desperate to negotiate a trade deal, to avoid economic pain that could destabilize Chinese society and threaten the Chinese Communist Party’s monopoly on power, is common among China hawks in the United States. This analysis is partly accurate, but it has led many to draw false conclusions.

Official data will come in time, but everyone is impatient and wants information faster. The FT report noted that “scheduled container volumes are plummeting at the Port of Los Angeles”. According to the IMF, the port accounts for more than 15 per cent of all US imports, with the vast majority of that being shipped from China.