The market appears to agree with Kaneva, given that oil futures have been rising gradually in recent days as peace talks continue. There are some wrinkles in the story, though.

Market Extra Market Extra Markets will offer this signal when investors take Ukraine peace prospects seriously Oil and natural-gas prices are a ‘truth serum’, trader says By William Watts Follow ...

Markets saw only a modest reaction Tuesday after Russia agreed to a temporary pause in attacks on energy infrastructure in its war against Ukraine — potentially a small step toward a peace deal.

Hartnett says “peace trades” now outperforming “war trades” as global tensions ease and oil prices fall. Emerging markets ex-China index surged 20% in a month, breaking out of 20-year ...

"I think energy markets are where we're going to see the epicenter of this," but investors need more clarity, Rob Haworth, senior investment strategist at U.S. Bank, said in a phone interview.