Markov chains provide a fundamental framework for modelling stochastic processes, where the next state depends solely on the current state. Hidden Markov models (HMMs) extend this framework by ...

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) provide a robust statistical framework for analysing sequential data by assuming that the observed processes are driven by underlying, unobserved states. These models have ...

C. Bracken, B. Rajagopalan, & E. Zagona (2014). “A Hidden Markov Model Combined with Climate Indices for Multi-decadal Streamflow Simulation,” Water Resources Research, 50, 7836-7846. Abstract: ...

A new process—the factorial hidden Markov volatility (FHMV) model—is proposed to model financial returns or realized variances. Its dynamics are driven by a latent volatility process specified as a ...

Drought is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon that significantly affects human and environmental activity, and can be considered one of the most widespread and destructive natural disasters.