The biggest increase in wholesale prices in three and a half years stunned Wall Street, but is tariff-related inflation really set to soar? The proof is far from ironclad.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell used the central bank's annual Wyoming research conference to promise inflation-fighting rigor when it was needed in 2022, then last year he came to the defense of the job market with promises of lower interest rates when the unemployment rate seemed on a steady rise.

Inflation held steady in July and ran slightly cooler than expected, increasing the odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month.

Fresh worries about inflation soured Americans on the economy in early August, underscoring lingering anxiety about the highest U.S. tariffs in decades and a further rise in unemployment.

The White House says that tariffs haven’t caused inflation in the world’s biggest economy, but a series of recent data releases this week could soon challenge that view.

Federal Reserve policymakers will be debating whether stubborn inflation or slower hiring is the bigger problem for the economy as they prepare for an annual conference in Jackson, Wyoming, next week and a crucial policy meeting in September.

Friday's data from the University of Michigan includes expectations from consumers that inflation could jump 4.9%

The official COLA is still two months away, but July's inflation data has led multiple experts to the same prediction.

U.S. producer prices increased by the most in three years in July amid a surge in the costs of goods and services, suggesting a broad pickup in inflation was imminent, posing a dilemma for the Federal Reserve.

Central bankers in the UK heaved a sigh of relief last year when inflation finally dropped below the 2 per cent target, hitting 1.7 per cent in September. More recently, the trend has been firmly in the wrong direction.

Americans are still opening their wallets, with unemployment remaining low and businesses blunting the effects of President Donald Trump’s widespread tariffs.